BEGIN:VCALENDAR VERSION:2.0 PRODID:-//jEvents 2.0 for Joomla//EN CALSCALE:GREGORIAN METHOD:PUBLISH BEGIN:VTIMEZONE TZID:America/New_York BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20220213T140000 RDATE:20220313T030000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 TZNAME:America/New_York EST END:STANDARD BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20221106T010000 RDATE:20230312T030000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 TZNAME:America/New_York EST END:STANDARD BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20231105T010000 RDATE:20240310T030000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 TZNAME:America/New_York EST END:STANDARD BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20241103T010000 RDATE:20250309T030000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 TZNAME:America/New_York EST END:STANDARD BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20251102T010000 RDATE:20260308T030000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 TZNAME:America/New_York EST END:STANDARD BEGIN:STANDARD DTSTART:20261101T010000 RDATE:20270314T030000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0400 TZOFFSETTO:-0500 TZNAME:America/New_York EST END:STANDARD BEGIN:STANDARD 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TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20260308T030000 RDATE:20261101T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20270314T030000 RDATE:20271107T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20280312T030000 RDATE:20281105T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20290311T030000 RDATE:20291104T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20300310T030000 RDATE:20301103T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20310309T030000 RDATE:20311102T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20320314T030000 RDATE:20321107T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20330313T030000 RDATE:20331106T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20340312T030000 RDATE:20341105T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20350311T030000 RDATE:20351104T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20360309T030000 RDATE:20361102T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20370308T030000 RDATE:20371101T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT UID:eb717f6cced313bada2aa292b10754dc CATEGORIES:RuCCS Colloquia: Spring 2023 CREATED:20230125T112623 SUMMARY:"Global–local incompatibility: The misperception of reliability in judgment regarding global variables" Dr. Stephen Broomell (Department of Psychological Sciences, Purdue University) LOCATION:152 Frelinghuysen Rd\, Psych Bldg. Room 105 DESCRIPTION:
Abstract: In the study of judgment and choice under unc ertainty, I have found that there are many contexts where observations prov ide far less information than is realized because of veiled violations of a ssumptions. I have clarified this disconnect by recasting such observations as measurements, identifying what assumptions are likely to hold, and high lighting the problematic role of violated assumptions for inference. I appl y this model to understand judgments of climate change, the COVID-19 pandem ic, and tornado risks. In all contexts, there is a disconnect between theor y and observation for individual decision makers that is driven by a large variability in personal experiences. This disconnect undermines the efficac y of collective behavior to mitigate risk.
Bio: Stephen Broom ell studies judgment and decision making under uncertainty. He has foun d that there are many contexts where observations (scientific or intuitive) provide far less information than is realized because of veiled violations of assumptions. His research approach is to formalize this disconnect by r ecasting such observations as measurements, and using psychometric theory t o identify what assumptions are likely to hold, and highlighting the proble matic role of violated assumptions for judgment, inference, and choice. Any investigation of judgment and choice under uncertainty will require robust methodology that can account for such disconnects between observation and theory. Failure to account for this problem will lead to inaccurate inferen ces from observation, for both researchers and DMs.
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