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"Global–local incompatibility: The misperception of reliability in judgment regarding global variables" Dr. Stephen Broomell (Department of Psychological Sciences, Purdue University)
Tuesday, February 14, 2023, 02:00pm - 03:20pm
152 Frelinghuysen Rd, Psych Bldg. Room 105
Abstract: In the study of judgment and choice under uncertainty, I have found that there are many contexts where observations provide far less information than is realized because of veiled violations of assumptions. I have clarified this disconnect by recasting such observations as measurements, identifying what assumptions are likely to hold, and highlighting the problematic role of violated assumptions for inference. I apply this model to understand judgments of climate change, the COVID-19 pandemic, and tornado risks. In all contexts, there is a disconnect between theory and observation for individual decision makers that is driven by a large variability in personal experiences. This disconnect undermines the efficacy of collective behavior to mitigate risk.
Bio: Stephen Broomell studies judgment and decision making under uncertainty. He has found that there are many contexts where observations (scientific or intuitive) provide far less information than is realized because of veiled violations of assumptions. His research approach is to formalize this disconnect by recasting such observations as measurements, and using psychometric theory to identify what assumptions are likely to hold, and highlighting the problematic role of violated assumptions for judgment, inference, and choice. Any investigation of judgment and choice under uncertainty will require robust methodology that can account for such disconnects between observation and theory. Failure to account for this problem will lead to inaccurate inferences from observation, for both researchers and DMs.