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TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20360309T030000 RDATE:20361102T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20370308T030000 RDATE:20371101T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT UID:22907ab740f54f9ea78a8996f84d6398 CATEGORIES:RuCCS Colloquia:Fall 2009 CREATED:20151203T141542 SUMMARY:The Benefits and Pitfalls of Using Imprecise Probabilities to Represent Uncertainty (talk recording available) LOCATION:University of Michigan\, Department of Philosophy DESCRIPTION:In Bayesian Rationality (Oxford, 2007) M. Oaksford and N. Chater argue that rationality involves the ability to reason correctly about uncertainty, an d that " cognition in general, and human everyday reasoning in particular, is best viewed as solving probabilistic, rather than logical, inference pro blems." (BBS 2009, p. 69) While I agree with the first point, and would lik e the second to be true, both ideas leave open the question of how probabil istic judgments and reasoning should be modeled. One issue, in particular, concerns whether to model beliefs, inferences, and information processing u sing "sharp" probabilities, thereby portraying agents as having a single su bjective probability function, or whether to employ "imprecise" probabilist ic models that use structured sets of probability functions to represent un certainty? Many philosophers have championed imprecise probabilities as the right response to incomplete or ambiguous evidence, and some psychologists (e.g., N. Pfeifer and G. D. Kleiter) have suggested that imprecise models might serve better than sharp probabilities as "normative reference systems " that can be used to explain human cognition. I will sympathetically asses s the normative prospects for one version of the theory of imprecise probab ilities, arguing that it does a better job than "sharp" theories do at refl ecting incomplete or ambiguous evidence. Moreover, since the imprecise view has the capacity to express far more types of attitudes and judgments than can be encoded in sharp probabilities, it allows us more freedom in repres enting mental states. This is both a benefit and a pitfall. Imprecise proba bilities offer us more nuanced ways of representing beliefs, but also more nuanced ways of misrepresenting them. I will discuss cases of each type and draw some tentative morals.\nTo view a recording of this talk click here ( You will need a Rutgers NetID and password) (https://sakai.rutgers.edu/port al/site/876a56f9-2ad8-41da-b3e7-5bbf71bc3450/page/0b5b24bb-566f-46db-8259-2 0ac975ea2d1)\nClick here for complimentary PDF materials\n X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:
In Bayesian Rationality (Oxford, 2007) M. Oaksford and N. Chater argue that rationality involves th e ability to reason correctly about uncertainty, and that " cognition in ge neral, and human everyday reasoning in particular, is best viewed as solvin g probabilistic, rather than logical, inference problems." (BBS 2009, p. 69 ) While I agree with the first point, and would like the second to be true, both ideas leave open the question of how probabilistic judgments and reas oning should be modeled. One issue, in particular, concerns whether to mode l beliefs, inferences, and information processing using "sharp" probabiliti es, thereby portraying agents as having a single subjective probability fun ction, or whether to employ "imprecise" probabilistic models that use struc tured sets of probability functions to represent uncertainty? Many philosop hers have championed imprecise probabilities as the right response to incom plete or ambiguous evidence, and some psychologists (e.g., N. Pfeifer and G . D. Kleiter) have suggested that imprecise models might serve better than sharp probabilities as "normative reference systems" that can be used to ex plain human cognition. I will sympathetically assess the normative prospect s for one version of the theory of imprecise probabilities, arguing that it does a better job than "sharp" theories do at reflecting incomplete or amb iguous evidence. Moreover, since the imprecise view has the capacity to exp ress far more types of attitudes and judgments than can be encoded in sharp probabilities, it allows us more freedom in representing mental states. Th is is both a benefit and a pitfall. Imprecise probabilities offer us more n uanced ways of representing beliefs, but also more nuanced ways of misrepre senting them. I will discuss cases of each type and draw some tentative mor als.
To view a recording of this talk click here (You will need a Rutgers Ne tID and password)
CONTACT:Dr,. James Joyce X-EXTRAINFO:Dr,. James Joyce (http://www.lsa.umich.edu/psych/decision-consortium/Direct ories/Faculty/jjoyce.htm) DTSTAMP:20240328T211431 DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20091110T130000 DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20091110T140000 SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR