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RDATE:20361102T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT BEGIN:DAYLIGHT DTSTART:20370308T030000 RDATE:20371101T010000 TZOFFSETFROM:-0500 TZOFFSETTO:-0400 TZNAME:America/New_York EDT END:DAYLIGHT END:VTIMEZONE BEGIN:VEVENT UID:64b683bd9da321a3f123e679e63150bc CATEGORIES:Human and computer vision series:Fall 2013 CREATED:20151203T141544 SUMMARY:The Wisdom of Crowds and Rank Ordering Problems Probabilistic Knowledge Retrieval and Group Communication for Complex Tasks LOCATION:University of California\, Irvine\, Department of Cognitive Science DESCRIPTION:In 1907, Sir Francis Galton observed in Nature that given the estimates of a large group of people, the median response was better than that of any ex pert. He begrudgingly concluded that, “the trustworthiness of a democratic judgment [is more credible] than might have been expected.” Today we know t hat, more than just being credible, the “average” response (be it mean, med ian, or mode) of a large group of people is quite often the best estimate a vailable (Surowiecki, 2004). This phenomenon, commonly known as the “Wisdom of Crowds,” relies on averaging responses so that individual error cancels out (Wallsten et al., 1997; Yaniv, 1997). But what happens when we can’t s imply average our responses? When given more complex tasks, we must rely on other means. Are there ways that the idea behind the wisdom of crowds - us ing response independence to cancel out individual error and uncertainty - can be brought to bear on these problems? We will explore this question in a hierarchical Bayesian modeling framework, and introduce several computati onal-level rational models in attempt to describe the observed human subjec t behavior.\n X-ALT-DESC;FMTTYPE=text/html:
In 1907, Sir Francis Galton observed in Nature that given the estimates of a large group of people, the median response was better than that of any expert. He begrudgingly concluded that, “the trustworthiness of a de mocratic judgment [is more credible] than might have been expected.” Today we know that, more than just being credible, the “average&rdquo ; response (be it mean, median, or mode) of a large group of people is quit e often the best estimate available (Surowiecki, 2004). This phenomenon, co mmonly known as the “Wisdom of Crowds,” relies on averaging res ponses so that individual error cancels out (Wallsten et al., 1997; Yaniv, 1997). But what happens when we can’t simply average our responses? W hen given more complex tasks, we must rely on other means. Are there ways t hat the idea behind the wisdom of crowds - using response independence to c ancel out individual error and uncertainty - can be brought to bear on thes e problems? We will explore this question in a hierarchical Bayesian modeli ng framework, and introduce several computational-level rational models in attempt to describe the observed human subject behavior.
CONTACT:Brent Miller X-EXTRAINFO:Brent Miller (http://www.socsci.uci.edu/~bmiller/) DTSTAMP:20240329T072622 DTSTART;TZID=America/New_York:20131202T120000 DTEND;TZID=America/New_York:20131202T190000 SEQUENCE:0 TRANSP:OPAQUE END:VEVENT END:VCALENDAR